PCI Forecast on 2014-04-18

PCI-forecast-on-2014-04-18Today we return to the WHEAT/F-CATTLE (wheat vs. frozen beef), composed by the PCI GeWorko. The significant decline in the Wheat prices in the period from September to February of this year led to the fact that the share of the crop became consumed as cattle fodder (feed wheat).
This allowed stimulating the growth in beef stocks and the projected demand in the market. As a consequence the WHEAT/F-CATTLE PCI shows an increase from the beginning of February.
The temporary correction is completed due to the worsening political situation in Ukraine. Financing of farms fell due to reduction in government spending, which was a lending condition of the IMF and EU.

Continue reading

USD/JPY Forecast on 2014-04-16

Daily Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

 USD/JPY-f0orecast-on-2014-04-16Today at 14:30 (CET, server time), we expect the publication of new (Building Permits) in the United States. The figure includes the data by the Statistical Office collected over the last month and published on an annual basis (x12). The Building Permits figure shows the number of new construction approvals issued by the government.

This indicator allows assessing the growth potential in the real estate sector. It should be expected in the long term that the consumption for goods of secondary demand and technological sector goods will increase as the actual values rise.

Continue reading

USD/JPY Forecast on 2014-04-15

Daily Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

USD/JPY-forecast-on-2014-04-15Today we expect the speech by the Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen at 14:45 (CET, server time). A high market volatility at this time allows you to make transactions based on the graphical and technical analysis.

It should also be noted that there are no qualitative changes in the monetary policy expected from the Fed at the moment. In this regard, the market will receive signals from Janet Yellen’s speech at the conference on financial markets through the filter of current market tendencies.

Continue reading

EUR/USD Forecast on 2014-04-14

Daily Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

EUR/USD-forecast-on-2014-04-14At the end of last week the market was in the state of expectation regarding the meeting of G7. Investors feared the appearance of signals of new sanctions by the U.S. and the EU to limit dealings with Russia.

Specific measures could lead to new capital losses in developed markets, as well as the outflow of Russian investments.This problem would touch the EU the most acutely as a major trading partner.

However, no economic results than the symbolic exclusion of Russia from the G8 and abstract declarations about the need for energy independence this meeting did not bring. Continue reading

EUR/USD Forecast on 2014-04-04

Daily Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

EUR/USD-forecast-on-2014-04-04Today at 13:30 (CET), we will see the U.S. (Unemployment Rate). This figure is released each month by the U.S. Labor Department and it shows the share of jobless employable population. The indicator takes only the citizens who are in search of a job in the U.S. Labor market into account.

The sharp increase in the number of unemployed active population class leads to reduction in consumer spending in the U.S. economy. This trend may also have an impact on changing the Fed’s monetary policy and reducing the base rate. These both factors cause the weakening of the U.S. currency in the as the unemployment rate negative statistics came out.

Continue reading

USD/CAD Forecast on 2014-04-03

Daily Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

 USD/CAD-forecast-on-2014-04-03Today at 13:30 (CET) Trade Balance of Canada will be published. The given monthly indicator is a correlation between Canada’s export and import. The report of a surplus 0.2B is expected to be released. It is a positive signal taking into consideration the fact, that last month the indicator was in a negative zone (-0.2B). If optimism is unjustified and Trade Balance will be below the expectations, the weakening of the Canadian Dollar should be expected.

Let us watch the four-hour chart of the pair USDCAD. The price unfolded the trend line H4 twice (is marked with dotted lines), the bearish potential is falling and we will be expecting for the origination of an upside momentum next to the weekly trend line.

Continue reading

USD/JPY Forecast on 2014-04-02

Daily Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

USD/JPY-forecast-on-2014-04-02Today at 13:15 (CET) we will see the (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change). The index is based on the anonymous data on about 400,000 clients the U.S. business sector. The agricultural sector as well as government officials are not included in the analysis.

This figure comes out 2 days before the Nonfarm Payrolls publication and allows investors to assess the direction of the employment trend preliminary. As the employment is a key factor affecting consumer demand, the indicator increase above expectations (> 192K) will lead to strengthening of the U.S. Dollar.

Continue reading

PCI Forecast on 2014-04-01

Daily Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

PCI-forecast-on-2014-04-01Today we will talk about the classic investment portfolio, based on GeWorko method. The portfolio components selected from the Top10 S&P500 golden list.

The rating is assigned in accordance with the market capitalization on December 31th, 2013. More information about the index can be found on our website S&P500.

For risk diversification, we chose one asset from each sector of the U.S. economy presented in Top10 S&P500: information technology, industrial production, energy, financial services and consumer goods.

Continue reading